Happy Monday, everybody. I hope this email finds you well after you’ve finished watching the United States play to a draw with Wales in their World Cup opener.
Let’s keep the international flavor going by betting on an NFL game in Mexico. But before that, catch up on these stories:
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
49ers at Cardinals, 8:15 p.m. | TV: ESPN
Key Trend: Arizona is allowing 29 points per game in its last four. The Pick: 49ers Over 26.5 (-120)
There are a lot of variables in play for tonight’s game in Mexico City that make this game challenging to figure out. How will the thin air and elevation affect the players? Is the difference between Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy drastic enough for the Cardinals to be 10-point dogs in this spot? Will Jimmy G’s natural beauty lead to an international incident when Mexico refuses to let him return to the United States to marvel at him?
So I’m ignoring all the big-picture stuff and looking for something more specific we can exploit, and I believe I’ve found it. This game seems perfect for the 49ers’ offense. Arizona’s defense hasn’t been good against the run this season, ranking 25th in success rate and 23rd in rush EPA. The one area the Cardinals’ defense excels is against the pass, particularly on the exterior.
DVOA is a fancy stat I don’t understand entirely, but it tells me that the Cardinals’ pass defense ranks 1st against No. 1 receivers and sixth against No. 2 receivers. But you know where it’s terrible? Stopping tight ends (31st) and running backs (30th) in the passing game. That’s not great news when facing a team with George Kittle and Christian McCaffery! Jimmy G is better at getting them the ball on short routes and between the numbers than he is outside. So this seems like a nightmare matchup for the Arizona defense. The 49ers should score plenty of points.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about…
..
