Last year, I correctly labeled North Carolina — then preseason No. 1, and later the first preseason No. 1 in history to miss the NCAA Tournament — a team that on paper was overrated after sifting through the preseason polls. The year before, UCLA earned that same label from yours truly before parlaying a preseason No. 2 ranking into a finish outside the top 10.
So which team’s dreams am I here to dash today, you ask?
Well, as part of my annual overrated/underrated analysis of the preseason AP Top 25 and Coaches Polls, I come bearing good news and bad news. The good news: only three teams landed as overrated by the voters in the polls. But the same number of teams also landed in my underrated bucket, meaning by my estimation that the general consensus around them relative to how I view them is not giving them their proper due.
Those teams and their respective designations are below — led by a two teams ranked in the top 10 in both the preseason AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll.
Overrated
Marquette
AP Top 25 ranking: 5Coaches Poll ranking: 7
Marquette had a 29-win season last year under then-second year coach Shaka Smart led by one of the most high octane offenses in college basketball. And while Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones are both back, two key pieces from a roster that almost is entirely the same, I think we may be underestimating how significant a loss O-Max Prosper is when you remove him from the equation. The term “overrated” might be doing a little too much heavy lifting here — I’d rank Marquette somewhere between 8 and 10 — but I can’t spare the Golden Eagles, even if it’s only a marginal qualification.
Tennessee
AP Top 25 ranking: 9Coaches Poll ranking: 10
Have we not learned our lesson here with Tennessee? This Vols team led by coach Rick Barnes is almost certain to have one of the most lethal defensive units in the sport. It is also inevitably going to struggle scoring the basketball. With…
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