If they don’t go pro, elite basketball recruits are more likely to transfer than stay put

The mass exodus of once-ballyhooed freshmen was a major undertone of college basketball’s 2024 transfer portal cycle. Forty-eight of the top 61 recruits from the Class of 2023 are expected to return to the college ranks next season. Over half (25 of the 48) are in the 2024 transfer portal.

The topsy-turvy coaching carousel has its fingerprints all over it.

When John Calipari bolted from Kentucky to Arkansas, former five-stars like Aaron Bradshaw and DJ Wagner hit the transfer portal. Stanford let go of Jerod Haase after a frustrating 14-18 season, which opened the door for both Kanaan Carlyle and Andrej Stojakovic to become free agents. Indiana scooped up Carlyle while Stojakovic eschewed Kentucky and UNC to drive 41 miles north up Cal. The former McDonald’s All-American will have a shot to be Mark Madsen’s next big star.

Coaching changes at Ohio State, USC, Arkansas and Oklahoma State were certainly factors.

In total, 13 of the top 25 players from the 2023 Class are transferring after a coaching change — as is their justified prerogative. Illinois’ Amani Hansberry is technically the 14th to leave due to a coaching change. Illinois assistant Chester Frazier was Hansberry’s lead recruiter. When Frazier left for West Virginia, Hansberry was in Frazier’s sidecar.

Prized 2023 recruits in the 2024 portal cycle:

No. 5 Aaron Bradshaw, from Kentucky to Ohio State (coaching change)No. 6 DJ Wagner, from Kentucky (coaching change)No. 13 Omaha Biliew, from Iowa State to Wake ForestNo. 16 Aden Holloway, from Auburn to AlabamaNo. 17 TJ Power, from Duke to VirginiaNo. 19 Andrej Stojakovic, from Stanford to California (coaching change)No. 22 Sean Stewart, from Duke to Ohio StateNo. 25 Dennis Evans, from Louisville to Grand Canyon (coaching change)No. 28 Bronny James (coaching change)No. 29 Baye Fall, from Arkansas to Kansas State (coaching change)No. 36 Berke Buyuktuncel, from UCLANo. 38 Eric Dailey, from…..

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