With an 85-71 victory over France on Friday, Germany joined Canada as the second team to go undefeated through group play so far. The United States can become the third with a win over Puerto Rico on Saturday.
Both Germany and France had already secured a spot in the quarterfinals, but the game still had meaning in that the winner would likely end up on the opposite side of the quarterfinal bracket from the United States, thus avoiding a potential matchup with the Americans until the gold medal game.
Why? Assuming the U.S. beats Puerto Rico on Saturday, three teams will be 3-0, and the top two point differentials will be the U.S. (+43 and counting) and Germany (+47). Canada finished its group with a +20 point differential.
Reminder: Eight teams qualify for the quarterfinals. The two top teams in each group and the two top third-ranked teams advance. Head-to-head competition breaks ties within groups, and point-differential competition breaks ties across groups.
With one day of group-play action remaining, six of the eight quarterfinalists have been confirmed: USA, Germany, Canada, France, Brazil (which beat Greece’s point differential by a single point) and Australia. The Boomers advanced to the quarterfinals despite losing to Greece on Friday, finishing second in Group A thanks to Canada’s win against Spain.
Spain, which actually could’ve won Group A with a win over Canada but instead finished last in the “Group of Death” with a loss, and Japan have been eliminated. Technically, Puerto Rico remains alive, but it would have to beat the United States by about 60 points and then still get help from Serbia or South Sudan. So Puerto Rico is out, too.
The two spots that remain up for grabs will come down to Greece, Serbia and South Sudan. Entering the Serbia-South Sudan game on Saturday, the point differentials look like this:
Serbia
+15
South Sudan
-6
Greece
-8
So you can start to do the math. If Serbia wins, it’s in. If it wins by two or more, South Sudan is out and Greece is in. If South Sudan beats Serbia by 23 or…
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