On paper, this year’s NBA Finals looks like a total mismatch. The Oklahoma City Thunder are -700 favorites with the Indiana Pacers at +500 (via FanDuel). You might be thinking: The Pacers are in the Finals, how can this be seen as such a lopsided series? Well, the Pacers come from the Eastern Conference. They’re a very good team, but the West is, and the Thunder certainly are, a different animal. The odds are right.
Let’s start with the easiest, non-bold prediction. If the Thunder win, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the obvious favorite to win Finals MVP, as evidenced by his -550 line.
Aaron Nesmith is going to serve as the primary SGA defender, but he could be playing on a compromised ankle and is going to have a hell of a time staying out of foul trouble. Andrew Nembhard is too small. Pascal Siakam is going to be occupied with one of OKC’s big men or Jalen Williams when OKC goes small. Indiana applies a lot of ball pressure, and it’s going to end up working against them when SGA starts baiting them into fouls they cannot avoid in such tight quarters. The Pacers are either going to have back off or watch SGA shoot 100 free throws. Either way, Gilgeous-Alexander is set up for a huge series.
Now let’s get to five bolder Finals predictions, none of which are very good news for the boys from Indiana.
1. Pacers luck runs out
This is speaking directly to Indiana’s miraculous comebacks in these playoffs, which have defied all statistical logic and simply cannot, and will not, continue. Entering this postseason, NBA teams had gone 1-1,640 when trailing by at least seven points inside the final minute in the play-by-play era (1997).
I repeat, only one such win had occurred over the last 27 postseasons. The Pacers have done it three times, first rallying to beat the Bucks to close out their first-round series in Game 5, then doing the same to the Cavaliers in Game 2 of the conference semis, then doing the same to the Knicks in Game 1 of the conference finals.
The odds on this, based solely on historical data, are literally like…
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