The summer recruiting period has come to an end, and one of the biggest subjects of conversation around grassroots basketball over the last few months has been the collective strength, or lack thereof, in the rising senior class of 2026.
To be clear, the 2026 class is not viewed as a collectively strong class. In many ways, it is reminiscent of the national class of 2023, which was headlined by the likes of Ron Holland and Isaiah Collier. The lack of star power atop that class led to a relatively weak 2024 NBA Draft. After observing the 2026 recruiting class for the last few years, its clear that the lack of overwhelming talent could have similar implications on the 2027 draft.
Forward-thinking NBA front offices know the 2027 draft will be weak at the top and have been planning accordingly, even while recognizing that prospects can emerge at various stages, including long after high school. The valuation of draft assets in 2027 are notably lower than say the upcoming 2026 draft, which is viewed as a strong one, or even later ones in 2028 and beyond.
But what about the implications on college basketball?
The worlds of recruiting and roster construction are vastly different now than they were even just three years ago. It’s still true that the very top prospects often arrive on college campuses with one-and-done expectations. That will again be true with the 2026 group of freshmen. The complicating factor now is that the top-ranked prospects are also expecting premium NIL packages. The big question with this class is just how much money college programs can afford to allocate to these potential freshmen who don’t match the level of talent from the last two classes (2024 and 2025). Based on our scouting and evaluation of the 2026 class, the return on the top-ranked freshman just won’t be the same in terms of production and impact on winning.
From my standpoint, this class has some…
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