Betting markets suggest the upcoming 2025-26 men’s college basketball season may finish with a first-time national champion being crowned for the first time in nearly a decade. Updated odds ahead of the start of August — and with most rosters set across the country — give Purdue (+900) and Houston (+1000) the best and second-best odds to take the crown next spring in Indy, which would make them the first first-time champ (say that five times fast!) since Virginia in 2019 and just the fifth first-time champ since the turn of the century.
Purdue’s rise to frontrunner status is a new development after opening at +1400 in April — tied for the third-best odds with Louisville behind Duke (then +1000) and Houston (+1200). Houston’s odds have improved but remain second-best, while Duke’s odds have dropped to third-best and now sit at +1100.
Updated odds are at the bottom of the page and courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Here’s a look at the current landscape and my takeaways of the betting landscape, how we got here, where the value lies and some longer shots that may be worth peeping.
Why Purdue is the betting favorite
Earlier-than-expected NCAA Tournament exits from Purdue in 2023 (as a No. 1 seed to a No. 16 seed), in the 2022 first round (as a No. 3 seed to a No. 15 seed in the Sweet 16) and 2021 (as a No. 4 seed to a No. 13 seed in the first round) continue to hover over the perception of this program’s ultimate ceiling. But that skepticism no longer reflects reality under coach Matt Painter. They were national runner-up in 2024 and lost to the eventual national runner-up by two points last season in a gutting Sweet 16 loss. They’re trending up.
Optimism is rampant in West Lafayette not only because of that proverbial tourney monkey is no longer on Purdue’s back, but because the band is largely back in place to run it back. They have two All-American candidates returning this season in…
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