For the past 23 years, the NBA has polled all 30 of its general managers at the beginning of every season to take their temperature on a number of league matters. Some of them are straightforward, like picks for the championship and MVP. Others are a bit more esoteric, like who the best international player not currently in the NBA is.
The answers are generally predictable. Of course the Boston Celtics are their championship favorites. They’re coming off of a season in which they won 64 games and posted the fourth-best net rating in league history. Few would argue that Nikola Jokic is the NBA’s best passer or that Erik Spoelstra is its best coach.
But every year, there are a few answers or voting margins that stand out. So let’s dig into the 2024 NBA GM survey and see what we can learn from the league’s roster-builders.
Boston’s overwhelming favorite status
Again, Boston’s status as the championship was never in question. What we’re interested in here is the margin of their victory in this vote. The Celtics won 83% of the votes in this poll. That is the third-highest mark any team has ever earned in this poll, trailing only the Stephen Curry-Kevin Durant-led Warriors of the 2017-18 (93%) and 2018-19 (87%) seasons. This means that more general managers are picking Boston this season than have ever picked a LeBron James, Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan-led team, for instance. Most sports books have Boston at around +320 to win the championship. Those represent implied odds of 23.81%, far lower than the 83% vote share they earned here.
Now, obviously, we need a bit of context. The general managers were not asked to assign a percentage likelihood that Boston or any other team would win the championship. They were given one pick, and most made the easy choice. This is how they tend to vote. The NBA has conducted 23 of these polls and the defending champion has been the pick in 13 of them if you include last season’s tie between Boston and Denver. But 83% is significant enough for us to take notice. A consensus as strong as this one is rare….
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