Each week during the 2024-25 NBA season, we will take a deeper dive into some of the league’s biggest storylines in an attempt to determine whether trends are based more in fact or fiction moving forward.
[Last week: The NBA’s 2024 free-agency class was a dud]
Fact or Fiction: LeBron James’ Lakers are stuck in the middle
Following a road victory against the defending champion Boston Celtics this season, Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry simplified matters: “A good team, or a relevant team, wins the games they’re supposed to win, steals a couple on the road against good teams and protects home court.”
By this definition, LeBron James’ Los Angeles Lakers (12-10) are a good team. They are in place for a play-in tournament bid in a crowded Western Conference. They are 10-3 against teams with a worse record than them, they have stolen three road wins from would-be postseason teams, and they are 7-3 at home.
But what makes a great team? It wins more than the games it’s supposed to. Championship teams this century have won on average 63% of their games against teams with a .500 record or better during the regular season. And they steal more than a couple on the road against good teams. Title teams since 2000 have similarly averaged a .635 winning percentage against teams on the road in the regular season.
Only three teams have exceeded both marks through the first quarter of this season: the Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder, which is a pretty good short list of the true contenders.
Just how much do these benchmarks mean to a team’s title aspirations? Only one of the 25 champions this century, the 2006 Miami Heat, finished below .500 (19-21) against opponents with winning records. And only one champion since 2000, the 2023 Denver Nuggets, registered a sub-.500 record (19-22) on the road. In other words, it is practically impossible to win a title with a losing record in both categories.
Two other teams — the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets — are better than .500 on the road and against winning opponents. You can also feel good about including them on any longer list of…
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