If you’re an optimist in Cleveland right now, you’re probably thinking of 2016. It is exceedingly rare for an NBA team to come back from a 3-1 deficit when they aren’t facing Doc Rivers, but the Cavaliers are responsible for the most famous 3-1 comeback in NBA history. If you can overcome Stephen Curry and the 73-win Golden State Warriors, then surely, Tyrese Haliburton and the No. 4 seeded Indiana Pacers can’t be insurmountable, right? Right?!
Well, it’s complicated. Let’s start with the obvious: if the ankle injury Donovan Mitchell suffered in the first half of Game 4 is at all serious, this series is over. It’s as simple as that. Mitchell entered Game 4 averaging 41.3 points per game in this series. He was really the only reliable positive the Cavaliers had going for them in the first three games. Maybe, if everything else was working, they could eke out wins without Mitchell. Cavalier lineups featuring Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen and no Mitchell managed to outscore opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions this regular season, according to Cleaning the Glass. But Cleveland has plenty of other problems to contend with here.
Garland, Mobley and De’Andre Hunter are all playing hurt. More than that, they’re playing frustrated. Hunter may not have gotten ejected for his hard shove on Bennedict Mathurin in Game 4, but the fact that he felt the need to deliver it is not especially promising for this team’s mindset. Mathurin has been instigating all series, but the Cavaliers are falling for it. Garland is fouling left and right. The Pacers are in their heads.
That’s something Cleveland can ultimately control. What it can’t is shooting variance. Nobody in the NBA made more than 40.2% of their catch-and-shoot 3s this season. Indiana made 38.3% in the regular season. They’re up to 44.8% in this series. Cleveland is down to 31% from 39.3% in the regular season. Some of that is defense. A lot of it is luck.
The superior team — and at this moment, it’s not clear that’s what Cleveland is — can usually afford a luck loss….
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