In every college basketball season since 2012, at least one team that began the season ranked in the AP Top 25 has failed to reach the NCAA Tournament. In the past three years alone, there were 13 teams ranked in the preseason that didn’t reach March Madness.
It’s basically a guarantee that at least one team we are lauding in October will be flopping by February. Over the past 13 years (excluding the COVID-impacted 2019-20 season) an average of four teams ranked in the preseason poll fell short of the Big Dance. Last season, there were three culprits (No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Cincinnati and No. 25 Rutgers).
Arguably the most famous recent example is from the 2022-23 season, which is when North Carolina became the first-ever preseason No. 1 team to fail to reach the NCAA Tournament. Those Tar Heels serve as the ultimate case study in how, just because a team looks good on paper, it doesn’t mean they’ll be good in reality.
College basketball rankings: Each AP Top 25 team’s strengths, weaknesses and depth chart entering 2025-26
Isaac Trotter
Given recent history, it’s safe to assume there will be at least a couple of teams ranked in this year’s preseason poll that fall short of expectations. For this edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are picking the ranked teams they believe could miss the NCAA Tournament.
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